BCS Championship Monday Service Plays 1/10/11

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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Thank you, wilheim




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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dunkel

MONDAY, JANUARY 10
Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (12/13)
Game 269-270: Oregon vs. Auburn (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 112.101; Auburn 117.576
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 5 1/2; 77
Vegas Line: Auburn by 3; 74
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-3); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DOUBLE DRAGON BOWLS

HYDRAS
AUBURN -2.5 (-115) vs oregon (1-10)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PittViper

Monday January 10th, 2011
GOLD: ROT# 269 - 8:30pm - Oregon +3 +100

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

lateactionline

1 unit Syndicate Play on Oregon

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIG AL MCMORDIE


BIG AL's BCS BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR: AUBURN/OREGON -- Mon. Jan 10
Al McMordie is releasing his BIGGEST BCS BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR in College Football's BIGGEST GAME! It's Oregon vs. Auburn for the National Championship, and it's backed by a SWEET 89% ATS System! Al's 7-2 his last 9 NCAA FB Title Game selections, and this play has B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it! Get on it...........4* Oregon

 

[tedwarden]

(posting this in a bunch of these threads hoping someone responds)

a documented solid poster from another forum went tout just found his website today...does anyone want to split a package and get the ball rolling on him?

im not sure the etiquette or process on how to get his plays added to the daily service plays thread. i just joined to post this because i would like his picks but wouldnt want to pay the astronomical prices...am i allowed to mention his name/website in this thread?​

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

(posting this in a bunch of these threads hoping someone responds)

a documented solid poster from another forum went tout just found his website today...does anyone want to split a package and get the ball rolling on him?

im not sure the etiquette or process on how to get his plays added to the daily service plays thread. i just joined to post this because i would like his picks but wouldnt want to pay the astronomical prices...am i allowed to mention his name/website in this thread?​

Welcome to the RX,

you can get the plays or split the plays with members but no websites, url's, phone numbers, or emails are allowed to be be posted in the service threads.

Thanks,
cpaw

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET

*Auburn 38 - Oregon 29—Truly, this appears to be a pretty even game, featuring undefeated teams loaded with offensive talent, both eager to press the envelope with their fast-paced spread offenses. Auburn boasts the single, most-dominant player in the nation in 6-6, 255 Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton (1409 YR; 67%, 28 TDs, only 6 ints.), the dual-threat “monster” QB who converts third downs with ease and throws well enough to lead the NFL in pass efficiency. Top WR Darvin Adams (48 recs., 7 TDs) flashes NFL-like skills. And TE Phillip Lutzenkircken (5 TDs) has hands as sure as his name is long. But perhaps the overlooked element in the Tiger attack has been 5-9, 215-lb. true frosh RB Michael Dyer (950 YR), who combines punch with quickness and is now fully integrated into coordinator Gus Malzahn’s creative, deceptive, multi- varied, spread attack that will likely land Malzahn a good head coaching job in the near future (he’s already turned down Vanderbilt).
Oregon’s spread-option counts more on speed—both in its backfield with national rushing leader LaMichael James (1682 TY, 6 ypc), and with its pace, running play after play without a huddle—without allowing defenses to either rest, substitute, or call many different alignments. Thus, the Ducks are able to work their deadly—but often-simple—zone-read plays with frequent devastating results vs. tired defenders in predictable schemes. When opponents do gain a few stops on defense, they find that Oregon HC Chip Kelly has prepared his attack with loads of quick-call counters featuring the likes of underrated soph QB Darron Thomas, who not only has 492 YR, but also 28 TDP vs. 7 ints. (passing stats quite similar to those of Newton). Top target Jeff Maehl (68 recs., 12 TDs) seems to always be open and is renowned for having the “best hands” in the Pac-10. Still, it shouldn’t be overlooked that it’s the pace of the offense that eventually destroys defenses, as the ultra-confident, fast-talking Kelly has trained his players to practice fast, execute fast, recover fast, and execute again, using coded sideline-placard play calls to quickly get all his Ducks in order.
Both offenses produce their fireworks while making few mistakes, as Auburn had only 15 giveaways in 13 games; Oregon only 22 in 12.
Offense both teams have. So defense figures to be a key factor. Oregon was No. 2 in the nation in takeaways with 35 and had 31 sacks (yielding only 7). The Tigers had 33 sacks (DT Nick Failey 101⁄2) , but gave up 21. Four times Auburn walked the tightrope, falling behind by double digits in games before coming back to win. Indeed, Auburn trailed 24-0 (it could have been more) in the second quarter of the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa, before Alabama’s dropped passes and fumbles helped the Tigers rebound to a 28-27 win. Oregon trailed Stanford 21-3 in the second quarter before rallying for a 52-31 win. And the Ducks survived 15-13 at Cal, but only after the Bears’ kicker was called for illegal procedure before a late FG, only to miss the re-try after the 5-yard march-off.
There do seem to be some intangibles that favor Auburn. Current HC Gene Chizik was Tommy Tuberville’s defensive coordinator for the 13-0 Tiger team in 2004 that was aced out of the BCS title game, with then 12-0 Southern Cal routing 12-0 Oklahoma 55-19. Auburn has felt disrespected ever since. Also, the Tigers represent the powerful Southeastern Conference, whose champion has won the last four BCS title games. Indeed, the SEC is 8-2 since the Bowl Coalition/Bowl Alliance/BCS began seeking to match the top two teams. All eight of the SEC victories have been by 7 points or more. By having to fight through the rugged SEC West (which sent five teams to bowls TY) and the SEC title game, Auburn has been honed on the toughest possible competition. If the old saying that “Blows that don’t break the back strengthen it” is true, the Tigers should be well-prepared for the national title game.
Moreover, Oregon would appear to have a concern on defense, as defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti has not exactly shined in his biggest games. In the 1995 Rose Bowl, Penn State easily rolled the Pac-10 champion Ducks 38-20 (Aliotti was the d.c. for Rich Brooks). When Aliotti was at UCLA in 1998, Bob Toledo’s Bruins were one victory away from a perfect regular season and a shot at the BCS title when they lost 49-45 at Miami. The Bruins gained 670 yards that day, only to see Aliotti’s defense appear helpless in allowing 689 (!!!). And, in last season’s Rose Bowl, with the Ducks favored by 4 over still offensively- maturing Ohio State, Oregon lost 26-17, with the one Buckeye the Ducks had to stop—mobile 6-6 soph QB Terrelle Pryor—passing for 266 yards (23 of 37) and rushing for 72.
The total on this game is high, but the game is indoors, and the offenses are fast-paced and generate big plays. Auburn was 9-4 “over” TY; Oregon 8-4 “over.” However, the long layoff prior to this January 10 title clash could easily cost the offenses a bit of their top-form rhythm. Only three of the previous 18 Bowl/Alliance/BCS totaled more than 74 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Football Jesus : BCS -Oregon +points

 

[AMFK]

Dr. Bob

Oregon 40 Auburn (-2.5) 36
Oregon a Strong Opinion in this game. lean slightly over the 74 point total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AL DEMARCO

BIGGEST PLAY OF THE YEAR

30 DIME* Auburn Tigers -2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NICK "BookieKiller" PARSONS

10* Oregon Ducks/Auburn Tigers UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

What Bettors Need To Know: Oregon vs. Auburn

Oregon Ducks vs. Auburn Tigers (-2, 74)

THE SKINNY: Two of the nation's most prolific offenses and two of the country's most explosive offensive players will square off for the BCS Championship on Jan. 10, when Auburn and Oregon look to cap their perfect seasons with a national title.

Auburn quarterback Cam Newton and Oregon running back LaMichael James weren't Heisman Trophy finalists by accident. Newton, who bested James and the other finalists for the Heisman, has passed for 2,589 yards with 28 touchdowns and six interceptions, and he has added 1,409 rushing yards and 20 more scores. James has been just as effective on the ground, rushing for 1,682 yards and finding pay dirt 21 times.

Both teams are going to put up some points -- Oregon averaged 49.3 in the regular season, and Auburn wasn't far behind at 42.7 -- so the national title could come down to which defense can make a couple of stops.

AUBURN’S EDGE: The Tigers have the distinct advantage of knowing the best player on the field will have the ball in his hands on every snap when they have possession. No one has managed to stop Newton this season, and he has proven his ability to take what the defense gives and beat quality opponents with either his arm or his legs.

OREGON’S EDGE: For all the talk about the explosive offenses -- and the Ducks certainly qualify in that regard, leading the nation in scoring and ranking second in total offense -- Oregon's defense might be its greatest asset against Auburn. The Ducks are 14th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 18.4 points per game, but they haven't faced an offense as capable as Auburn's.

THE QUARTERBACKS: By now, you know all there is to know about Auburn's Cam Newton -- that his father worked with an agent to try to orchestrate a pay-for-play scheme, that he was deemed ineligible and immediately reinstated by the NCAA before the SEC title game, and that he had arguably one of the greatest seasons by an offensive player in college football history. Newton leads the nation in passing efficiency, ranks 15th in rushing and has accounted for 49 touchdowns.

All of that makes Oregon's Darron Thomas the forgotten quarterback in this game, a pretty incredible fact considering the season Thomas put together. The sophomore from Houston completed 60.7 percent of his passes for 2,518 yards with 28 touchdown and seven interceptions, and he rushed for 488 yards and five scores.

NFL PROSPECTS: Auburn -- DT Nick Fairley, QB Cam Newton, OT Lee Ziemba. Oregon -- RB LaMichael James, LB Casey Matthews, DT Brandon Bair.

BOWL HISTORY: Auburn is 20-13-2 all-time in bowl games and has pulled off dramatic victories in its past three. The Tigers beat Nebraska 17-14 in the 2006 Cotton Bowl, and needed overtime to win their last two bowls, beating Clemson 23-20 in the 2007 Chick-fil-A Bowl and knocking off Northwestern 38-35 in last year's Outback Bowl.

The Ducks have a spotty bowl history -- they're 9-14 all-time in bowl games -- and it has been even worse in recent years, as they've lost five of their last seven. Oregon is 1-1 in BCS bowls, beating Colorado 38-16 in the 2002 Fiesta Bowl and losing to Ohio State 26-17 in last year's Rose Bowl.

ETC.: Both coaches -- Auburn's Gene Chizik and Oregon's Chip Kelly - are in the second year with their respective programs. … Auburn had to comeback to win eight of its 13 games so far this season, rallying from double-digit deficits four times.

BETTING TRENDS

The SEC is 6-0 straight up and against the spread in national championship games since the BCS era began in 1998.

The Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games as underdogs but are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

Auburn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games and 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite. The Tigers are, however, just 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.

The under is 4-1 in Oregon’s last five bowl games but the over is 4-1 in the team’s last five non-conference games.

The under is also 7-1 in Auburn’s last eight bowl games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BANG THE BOOK

Monday's Best Bowl Bet

Oregon Ducks vs. Auburn Tigers (-2, 74)

It all comes down to this… After 34 previous bowl games and a total of 25 wins between these teams earlier in the year, the Oregon Ducks and Auburn Tigers finally get it on to determine who will be the winner of the BCS Championship, the most illustrious prize in the NCAA football betting world. This duel in Glendale, AZ is for all of the marbles this year and will be the one game that you certainly do not want to miss betting on the college football odds.

First, we have the Ducks, who have arguably the most dynamic offense in the nation with a ton of players that run the football all over the place. Head Coach Chip Kelly went through some heartache at the start of the year when he had to kick QB Jeremiah Masoli off of the team and suspended some of his best players, including RB LaMichael James for the first game of the season. In spite of that though, this team still averaged 542.1 yards and 49.3 points per game, both numbers of which were the best in the country. QB Darron Thomas threw for 2,500 yards and 28 scores on the year, and he was one of seven players on this offense that rushed for at least 125 yards as well. James was the nation’s leading rusher with 1,702 yards and 21 TDs, and he immediately became the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy for 2011 after being the runner up this year when he announced that he was returning to school for his junior season this past weekend. Don’t forget about RB Kenjon Barner, who rushed for 537 yards on just 81 carries this year, or WR Jeffrey Maehl, who caught 68 passes for 943 yards and 12 TDs, all team highs on the year.

Many questioned bringing Head Coach Gene Chizik to Auburn a few years ago, but now, there is no one anywhere in the great state of Alabama that is doubting what these Tigers are doing. Of course, it really helps when you have the Heisman Trophy winner on your side in the form of QB Cam Newton. Newton simply did everything this year for the Tigers. He threw for 2,589 yards and rushed for 1,409 more, accounting for 28 passing TDs and 20 rushing TDs, making him just one of two men in the history of college football that can say they had at least 20 TDs both rushing and passing in the same year. RB Michael Dyer needs just 50 yards to reach the 1,000 yard barrier for the year, while RB Onterio McCalebb, often the forgotten back in this bunch, had 763 yards on just 89 carries with nine TDs. WR Darvin Adams set an SEC Championship Game record with seven receptions for 217 yards and two scores against the South Carolina Gamecocks, and the most impressive part of this one was that he racked up all of those stats in the first half. Auburn also has a man that would probably be a Top 10 pick in the NFL Draft if he elected to come out of school early in DE Nick Fairley, who is one of the most feared defensive linemen in the country.

We know that Oregon’s offense is great, but there is something about how finely tuned it needs to be to work that scares us. It will have been six weeks since the Ducks saw game action when they take to the field against the Tigers. Newton just finds ways to make things happen for the Tigers on a regular basis regardless of who the opponent is. This Auburn team just feels like a touched squad, and between the power of Newton and the offense and Fairley and the defense, the Tigers will be too tough to tame in Glendale.

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP PICK: Auburn Tigers -2.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PICK 'N' ROLL

Monday's Best NBA Bets

Houston Rockets at Boston Celtics (-9, 198)

You have to hand it to Celtics coach Doc Rivers. He’s as positive as can be when things are going well, but there might not be a better quote in the Association when he’s frustrated with his club.

Boston shot just 37.8 percent from the floor and had a season-low 12 assists in a 90-79 loss at the Chicago Bulls on Saturday as a 2-point underdog.

“We were pretty awful,’’ Rivers told reporters after the game. “Let’s say it was [the Bulls’] defense. Let’s give them the credit but we were bad. That’s the worst ball movement we’ve had this year. We basically bounced the life out of the game tonight.”

Boston was beat up inside as Shaquille O’Neal put up just five points and four rebounds in almost 20 minutes of work while Glen Davis added only 11 points and three boards in 43 minutes. Jermaine O’Neal was a non-factor too, so it’s becoming pretty obvious that Boston needs to get Kevin Garnett back in the lineup.

He should return this week but isn’t expected to play Monday. Either way, expect the Celtics to bounce back here at home.

PICK: Boston Celtics


Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls (-10, 189.5)

The Detroit Pistons continue to deal with ramped speculation that they will be involved in a trade that will reportedly send Denver’s Carmelo Anthony to New Jersey. If the rumors are legit, this deal would have a big part of Detroit’s team heading out of town.

Not surprisingly, Rip Hamilton, who has butted heads with Detroit brass, is being named as one of the players on his way to Denver. Veteran Chauncey Billups is reportedly on the block as well, while Detroit would end up with Troy Murphy and Johan Petro.

The rumors come at a tough time for Detroit bettors. The Pistons have covered in seven of their last nine, including a 112-109 overtime win over Philadelphia as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday.

“The thing I was impressed with was we never gave up,” Pistons coach John Kuester told reporters after the game. “We came up and kept battling. It was a great win.”

Putting back-to-back victories together could be a tall task for Detroit though, especially with Chicago coming into the matchup riding a high after their win on Saturday.

PICK: Chicago Bulls

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

COLLEGE FUNDS

Monday's Best NCAAB Bets

No. 15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Marquette Golden Eagles (-3, 147)

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are feeling pretty good about their quick start in conference play. They are looking for their first 4-1 start in the Big East in six season.

Notre Dame has won two straight in dropping UConn and St. John’s after a blowout loss at Syracuse. That loss to the Orange has the Irish wary about Monday’s road game.

"When you go on the road you really have to be ready to handle pressure, and be ready to rebound and defend because that is how you win on the road," senior guard Ben Hansbrough told reporters. "We are going to have to be at our best in those areas if we want to win."

Notre Dame could be a handful for Marquette, which is 0-4 straight up against top 25 teams this season. However, the Golden Eagles have covered in four straight games, including an 89-81 loss at Pitt as an 8.5-point underdog.

Perimeter defense could be huge on Monday. Marquette ranks last in the Big East defending the trey, while Notre Dame sits second behind Pittsburgh in 3-point field-goal percentage.

PICK: Notre Dame Fighting Irish


Jacksonville Dolphins at Belmont Bruins (N/A)

The Belmont Bruins don’t see a lot of lines from oddsmakers but they take care of business when they do.

Belmont is 4-0 against the spread and has won eight of their last straight up heading into Monday’s game against Jacksonville. The lone loss they suffered over that stretch was a 1-point loss to Tennessee.

Outside of the previously discussed battle in the Big East, the college hoops schedule is light on Monday, so the books may release a line for this one. Belmont has balanced attack that is averaging almost 83 points per game and the Bruins are coming off a 91-59 beat down of North Florida.

Look for Belmont’s offense to keep the club’s winning streak going against Jacksonville.

PICK: Belmont Bruins

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ICE PICKS

Monday's Best NHL Bets

Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins (-135, 5)

Life without Sidney Crosby hasn’t been kind to the Penguins. They’re 0-2 since Crosby went on the injury shelf with a concussion after suffering two blows to the head in less than a week.

Capitals forward David Steckel collided violently with the NHL’s leading scorer on New Year’s Day and Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman left his mark on Crosby four days later.

"(After the) Winter Classic game, he had neck symptoms. He did not have concussion symptoms after the Tampa Bay game," Pens coach Dan Bylsma told the Pittsburgh Tribune Review. "(Crosby) was not feeling right, and per our doctor's orders, if he woke up (Thursday) morning and felt the same way, he would need to get evaluated."

"Until he's symptom-free, we won't be moving forward."

Pittsburgh’s depth up the middle is really being tested with Crosby and Mike Comrie out, Evgeni Malkin battling a cold and Jordan Staal still shaking off the rust.

PICK: Boston Bruins


Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche (-110, 5.5)

On Saturday, the Red Wings beat the Canucks at home, a feat only five other teams have managed to do this season. The win was even more remarkable considering the Wings were missing centers Pavel Datsyuk, Valtteri Flippula and Mike Modano.

Meanwhile, things are looking really bad for the Avalanche. Colorado is 2-5-2 in its last seven games after falling 4-3 to the Islanders on Saturday.

"We have to find a way to win, to fight through it," Avs captain Adam Foote told the Denver Post before the setback to the Islanders. "We've got to get over this and get refocused. It seems a little that since Christmas break we've been a little distracted.”

The Wings are 6-0 in their last six roadies while the Avs are just 1-6 in their last seven home games.

PICK: Detroit Red Wings

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettors' Best Friend (BBF): Monday's Wagering Tips

Lines To Watch

BCS Championship: Auburn opened as a 2.5-point favorite over Oregon with the total at 74.5. The Tigers now sit around -2.5 with the total at 73.5 or 74.

Who’s Hot

NCAAF: Auburn has covered in six of its last seven.

NBA: Detroit has covered in seven of its last nine games overall.

NBA: Chicago Bulls have covered in eight of their last 10 games with Detroit.

NHL: St. Louis is 20-8 in its last 28 home games.

NHL: Detroit has won three straight and 21 of its last 29 meetings with Colorado.

Who’s Not

NBA: Houston is riding an 0-6-2 run against the spread.

NHL: Boston has dropped four of its last five.

NHL: Phoenix has won three of its last 10 meetings with St. Louis.

NHL: Colorado has own only two of its last nine.

NHL: Los Angeles has one win in its last six games.

NCAAB: Marquette is 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games.

Key Stat

28 – average number of points Auburn allowed over its last eight games. The Tigers still managed to cover the number in six of those games while playing over the total six times as well.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Kevin Garnett (hamstring) Boston Celtics – Garnett is getting closer to returning to the lineup, but probably won’t play Monday at home to the Houston Rockets. Garnett strained his right calf on Dec. 29 against Detroit and the Celtics have gone 2-4 against the spread since. He’s considered doubtful for Monday but is targeting a return sometime this week.

Game Of The Day

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP: Oregon vs. Auburn (-2, 74)

Notable Quotable

“We’re not letting any magnitude of the game, being the national championship, get to us. It’s not like, ‘Oh dang. The national championship. Oh, wow.’ We’re more like, it’s the next game, it’s the next team on the map that we know we’re going to have to defeat. We’re 60 minutes away from being crowned national champions.” – Auburn Tigers linebacker Josh Bynes.

Tips And Notes

Last year the Oregon Ducks were accused of losing focus leading up to the Rose Bowl. This time around they’ve been all business leading up to Monday’s BCS Championship game. By all accounts the Ducks’ practices have been crisp and focused with a few wrinkles worked into them. On Saturday, Oregon had wide receivers throwing passes, possibly to get ready for some gadget plays against Auburn.

If you’re looking for a halftime wager in the BCS game, Auburn has been a tough team to play against in the second half. The Tigers have allowed only 48 points in the fourth quarter this season and allows teams to convert on only 24 percent of third-down attempts in the second half.

Los Angeles Kings defenseman Jack Johnson signed a seven-year contract extension worth $30.5 million. Johnson is coming off a three-assist performance against Columbus and heads into Monday’s game with Toronto with four goals and 27 assists for 31 points in 41 games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NCAA CBB

Season
Straight Up: 1882-524 (.782)
ATS: 721-746 (.491)
ATS Vary Units: 2390-2372 (.502)
Over/Under: 704-695 (.503)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1061-1133 (.484)

America East Conference
BINGHAMTON 63, Stony Brook 61
Atlantic Sun Conference
BELMONT 75, Jacksonville 66
CAMPBELL 69, Mercer 64
EAST TENNESSEE STATE 75, Stetson 58
LIPSCOMB 78, North Florida 68
USC UPSTATE 70, Florida Gulf Coast 65
Big East Conference
Notre Dame 75, MARQUETTE 74
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
COPPIN STATE 68, Howard 62
Delaware State 65, SOUTH CAROLINA STATE 60
MORGAN STATE 67, Hampton 65
NORFOLK STATE 76, Florida A&M 69
NORTH CAROLINA A&T 69, Bethune-Cookman 65
Ohio Valley Conference
Austin Peay 82, TENNESSEE-MARTIN 68
Southern Conference
Elon 78, UNC GREENSBORO 73
Southwestern Athletic Conference
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF 63, Alabama A&M 62
GRAMBLING STATE 74, Alcorn State 64
JACKSON STATE 70, Southern 51
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE 63, Alabama State 62
Non-Conference
MARSHALL 76, Savannah State 53
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL 72, Umes 67